AGNOSTIC Papers

AgPa #33: World Cups and Stock Markets

Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns (2007)
Alex Edmans, Diego García and Øyvind Norli
The Journal of Finance 62(4), 1967-1998, URL

Given that this week’s AGNOSTIC Paper coincides with the final of the World Cup, I couldn’t resist the temptation. Below you can see a chart of the knockout stage of this year’s tournament. But since you are visiting a nerdy finance website, the focus is not on the results, but on the post-match stock market returns of the playing countries…


You may (understandably) say that this is some nice storytelling but not much more. However, I didn’t made this up to create a story but the idea of this analysis actually comes from this week’s AGNOSTIC paper…

  • Stock markets of losing countries tend to underperform after important matches
  • The effect most likely comes from bad mood after sport losses

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AgPa #32: Agnostic Fundamental Analysis (3/3)

Boosting agnostic fundamental analysis: Using machine learning to identify mispricing in European stock markets (2022)
Matthias X.Hanauer, Marina Kononova, Marc Steffen Rapp
Finance Research Letters 48, URL/SSRN

The third and final post about agnostic fundamental analysis. This week’s AGNOSTIC Paper challenges the simple linear methodology and introduces vastly improved valuation models…

  • More sophisticated valuation models yielded better performance
  • Different models emphasize different fundamental variables

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AgPa #31: Agnostic Fundamental Analysis (2/3)

Global market inefficiencies (2021)
Söhnke M. Bartram, Mark Grinblatt
Journal of Financial Economics 139(1), 234-259, URL/SSRN

The second AGNOSTIC Paper on agnostic fundamental analysis. This one is the international out-of-sample test where the authors apply their methodology to stock markets around the world. The results point in the same direction and suggest robust out-of-sample evidence…

  • Undervalued stocks outperformed overvalued stocks – also globally
  • Agnostic fundamental analysis yielded significant alpha – globally and against up to 80 factors
  • Agnostic fundamental analysis remains profitable after transaction costs
  • The degree of market efficiency differs around the world

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AgPa #30: Agnostic Fundamental Analysis (1/3)

Agnostic fundamental analysis works (2018)
Söhnke M. Bartram, Mark Grinblatt
Journal of Financial Economics 128(1), 125-147, URL/SSRN

This week’s AGNOSTIC Paper tackles a very basic question: Does fundamental analysis work? For that purpose, the authors introduce an agnostic valuation model that explains the market capitalization of companies by their most recent fundamentals. A strategy that bets on the convergence of prices and estimated “fair” values generated strong profits between 1987 and 2012…

  • Undervalued stocks outperformed overvalued stocks by about 0.5% per month
  • Agnostic fundamental analysis yielded significant alpha

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AgPa #29: Cost-Mitigation Techniques

Comparing Cost-Mitigation Techniques (2019)
Robert Novy-Marx, Mihail Velikov
Financial Analysts Journal 75(1), 85-102, URL/SSRN

This week’s AGNOSTIC Paper examines three techniques to mitigate trading costs of systematic equity strategies and compares them by after-cost performance. The empirical evidence clearly speaks for the application of more sophisticated trading rules (Technique #3)…

  • Trading costs decreased but are still important
  • Technique #1: focus on “cheap-to-trade” securities
  • Technique #2: rebalance less frequently
  • Technique #3: create better trading rules
  • Value- versus equal-weighted portfolios

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AgPa #28: “Not Selling” of Insiders

Is “Not Trading” Informative? Evidence from Corporate Insiders’ Portfolios (2022)
Luke DeVault, Scott Cederburg, Kainan Wang
Financial Analysts Journal 78(1), 79-100, URL/SSRN

Transactions of insiders are usually a useful source of information when evaluating a stock. Insiders typically have a good understanding of the underlying business and buys are therefore often considered as positive signal. On the other hand, insider sales are not necessarily negative. There are many non-informative reasons to cash out. Maybe the insider needs some cash for personal expenditures or just wants to diversify his assets. This week’s AGNOSTIC Paper challenges this asymmetry and creatively shows that even those transactions convey important information…

  • “Not sold” stocks from insider portfolios outperformed
  • A portfolio of “not sold” stocks easily beat the US market
  • “Not sold” stocks with momentum are even better
  • Corporate insiders know more than institutional investors

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AgPa #27: Forecasting DAX Index Changes

Forecasting index changes in the German DAX family (2020)
Friedrich‑Carl Franz
Journal of Asset Management 21, 135-153, URL

Is it possible to forecast and exploit changes in the composition of equity indices? This is the central question of this week’s AGNOSTIC Paper and the author introduces a quite interesting trading strategy for the German DAX family indices…

  • Index changes in the DAX family are predictable
  • Buying index additions and shorting deletions generated strong risk-adjusted returns

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AgPa #26: Trading on Price Charts

(Re-)Imag(in)ing Price Trends (2022)
Jingwen Jiang, Bryan T. Kelly, Dacheng Xiu
The Journal of Finance, Forthcoming, URL

This week’s AGNOSTIC Paper is about technical analysis. Full disclosure: I never believed in technical analysis in the sense of drawing lines on charts or imagining somewhat arbitrary patterns.

But the approach of this week’s authors is quite different. They borrow methodology from image recognition and train a machine learning model to detect predictive patterns in price charts (Yes, the machine receives the price chart as picture, not the underlying numbers!)…

  • The model identifies very profitable short-term signals
  • The signals are also profitable over longer horizons
  • Some of the machine-learning-signals are explainable
  • The model disagrees with conventional technical analysis

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AgPa #25: The Economics of High-Frequency-Trading

The Economics of High-Frequency Trading: Taking Stock (2016)
Albert J. Menkveld
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 8, 1-24, URL/SSRN

This week’s AGNOSTIC Paper examines once again a somewhat controversial topic: high frequency trading. The (public) image of HFTs is quite mixed with a clear tendency towards negative. However, an open-minded and scientific analysis suggests that we are probably better off with HFTs than without them…

  • Trading costs strongly decreased between 2001 and 2011
  • HFTs are fast, well-informed, and often market makers
  • Order-preying and arm’s races – it’s not all good
  • The benefits seem to outweigh the costs

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AgPa #24: Market Capitalization vs. GDP

The big bang: Stock market capitalization in the long run (2022)
Dmitry Kuvshinov, Kaspar Zimmermann
Journal of Financial Economics 145(2), 527-552, URL

This week’s AGNOSTIC Paper is admittedly not very practical but probably more relevant today than ever before. The authors examine the outstanding performance of equity markets since the end of the inflationary 1970s and early 80s. A regime shift that they call the big bang. There are some surprising results, especially beyond the general debate about steadily falling interest rates…

  • The Big Bang: market capitalization detached from GDP growth after the 1980s
  • Most of the Big Bang comes from higher stock prices
  • Falling interest rates are surprisingly not the main driver
  • Higher profitability of listed firms is much more important

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